The Syrian Civil War is becoming increasingly messy and the need for action is self-evident, but the best solution is a diplomatic one.
By Jon Overton
If
the nuns of Nonnberg Abbey in The Sound
of Music thought Maria presented a difficult dilemma, their prim and proper
sensibilities would have been completely overwhelmed with the brutality and
complexity of Syrian Civil War. But that’s okay, because virtually everyone
else is in the same boat!
The
Syrian Civil War is not nearly as simple as good vs. evil. It’s more like a
bunch of disassociated groups fighting the Syrian government of President
Bashar al-Assad and sometimes each other, when the mood
strikes them.
A
United Nations report
from February stated that “Anti-Government armed groups have committed war
crimes, including murder, torture, hostage-taking and attacking protected
objects ... The violations and abuses committed by anti-Government armed groups
did not, however, reach the intensity and scale of those committed by
Government forces and affiliated militia.”
The
Free Syrian Army is the largest opposition group, which is loosely organized
and coordinated by local military councils. Generally, it’s made up of
politically moderate forces and funded by Western nations and Persian Gulf
states.
Then
there are a couple of Islamist groups ranging from moderates to those with stronger
religious motivations.
Kurdish
groups in northeastern Syria have worked with some rebels against the Assad
regime, though they’re mostly concerned with gaining independence.
The
Al Qaeda affiliated Al-Nursa Front has both fought and cooperated with various
rebel battalions, though the Free Syrian Army and some major Islamist groups
have publicly distanced themselves from Al-Nursa due to its extremism.
Hostile
to all of these groups is the Syrian government, which is gaining the upper
hand and receiving support from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.
In
short, it’s complicated.
Residents walk through a rebel controlled city in Syria after
aerial bombardment by government forces.
|
So
what is the United States to do?
A
peacekeeping force from the United Nations probably won’t happen because it
requires approval from the Security Council. Russia and China have repeatedly
vetoed measures from the council when it tried to take action against the
brutal Syrian government.
As
Director Jeffery Weiss of Catholic Peace Ministry in Des Moines, Iowa suggested,
diplomacy is the way to go, but resolving the war will remain difficult. While
the lack of a single unifying leader to unite the opposition makes negotiations
problematic, the situation is compounded by fragmentation among disparate rebel
groups, many of which are already loosely organized.
“In
the absence of that leader, until there is a change in the power balance between
the government and the opposition, this may be close to impossible,” Weiss
explained.
Obviously,
the United States has little political clout with the Syrian Government,
especially since President Obama said he wants to “work toward a Syria
that is free from Assad’s tyranny.”
But
the U.S. relationship with many of the rebels is weak too.
The
United States still has not provided
promised “military assistance” to rebel allies in Syria, more than two
months after President Obama said he would. The rebels, whom the U.S.
government agreed to support, also say they do not know when they will receive
help from the United States or what exactly the aid will be.
On
one hand, this is great because arming uncontrolled militants has gone horribly
in the past. On the other hand, people don’t like being stood up. And that’s
exactly what the United States is doing to the Syrian rebels.
So
how do we get the rebels and Syrian government to come to the negotiating table
and ease the situation?
Fortunately,
as Weiss pointed out, the United States has strong relationships with the
governments of Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, all of whom have
been supplying and arming the Syrian rebels.
“That
might be the best bet for the United States to put pressure on those countries
to put pressure on the rebels to come to the bargaining table because ... the
Assad government has been more willing
than some of the key rebel groups to come to the table and discuss future power
sharing,” he explained.
However,
Assad has been inconsistent on willingness to negotiate, flip flopping from
time to time, so it may be necessary for Russia to pressure him into negotiations,
though don’t expect Iran to budge since Syria is essentially Iran’s only Arab
ally.
Weiss
suggested that financial and material incentives may be the best way to
persuade conflicting groups to negotiate. He cited successful historical
precedents for this strategy including the 1978 Camp David Accords between
Egypt and Israel while noting that it’s also frequently used to obtain votes for resolutions in the United Nations Security Council.
“The
only language that the rebels would listen to is the language of money and
resources — as history shows,” Weiss said.
Since
government-aligned forces have been gaining ground recently, Weiss speculated
that realistically, the best chance the Syrian rebels have is to fight on the
same side to create a stalemate and thus an atmosphere that more strongly
encourages diplomacy.
While
the Syrian Civil War remains a great big, disgusting fiasco, perhaps there
is one more potential solution: We must find a wealthy Austrian family in need
of a governess. If it solved a problem like Maria, it can solve a problem like
Syria.
Jeffery Weiss is
the director of Catholic Peace Ministry and is an adjunct professor at Des
Moines Area Community College. He is available to give 30 minute lectures on
the Arab Spring and the crisis in Syria. For more information, you can contact
him at jjwcpm@yahoo.com or 515-255-2465
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